Iran has constructed a war strategy built on a simple but powerful premise — that the economic pain of a prolonged conflict will eventually force the United States to accept a negotiated settlement on Tehran’s terms. By near-blocking the Strait of Hormuz and striking Gulf energy infrastructure, Iran has turned the global oil market into a battlefield, betting that rising fuel prices in America will erode public support for the war faster than military pressure can force a capitulation.
The numbers suggest the strategy is having some effect. President Trump’s approval rating has fallen to an all-time low of 36%, with analysts pointing to fuel price increases and war fatigue as the primary drivers. A new poll found that 59% of Americans believe the war has “gone too far.” These figures represent a significant shift in public opinion and have injected urgency into the administration’s search for a diplomatic exit.
Iran’s five-point counter-proposal, submitted in response to the American 15-point ceasefire plan, includes the demand for continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz — the economic jugular of global energy supply. The inclusion of this demand is not incidental. It is a calculated assertion that Iran intends to retain the leverage that has made this war globally disruptive. Without resolution on Hormuz, oil markets will remain in crisis, and the political cost for Washington will keep climbing.
The US military, for its part, has inflicted enormous damage on Iran’s military infrastructure, claiming to have destroyed 92% of the Iranian navy’s largest vessels and damaged over two-thirds of Iran’s missile and drone production capacity. Yet Iran continues to fight, launching ballistic missiles at Israel and drones at Gulf states even as its military capabilities are degraded. The resilience speaks to a regime that believes it can absorb punishment better than the American public can absorb economic pain.
The endgame remains murky. Iran wants reparations, security guarantees, and sovereignty over Hormuz. The US wants nuclear disarmament, missile restrictions, and an open waterway. These positions are not currently reconcilable without significant movement from one or both sides. Intermediaries in Cairo, Islamabad, and Ankara are working to narrow the gap, but the fundamental strategic miscalculation would be to assume that economic pain alone can produce the kind of political breakthrough this war demands.